As Goes Oil, So Goes Plastic

With daily headlines proclaiming the dramatic rise in oil prices and the inevitability of “Peak Oil”, consumers are being forced to dramatically alter their driving (and flying) habits, and if a recessionary economy takes hold, manufacturers may have to scale back oil-dependent production lines.  Although such trends may actually lead to a decrease in oil prices down the road, there is no consensus among economists and oil industry experts that that would happen.  In the meantime, apart from a more costly commute, the effects of oil’s rise are visible in gradually rising prices for goods, as manufacturers seek alternatives to petroleum-based sources for plastic, and alternative fuels for their operations.  For example, Goodyear has made a move to natural rubber as an alternative to oil-based synthetics for their tires, but because of the rise in commodities such as natural rubber, have had to raise prices by 15%.  This is just one example of many, which spell out the financial pressures that many manufacturers are facing, and how an across-the board rise in product prices (inflation) may be in the offing.

(Courtesy National Geographic Magazine)

An article in the April 2006 issue of National Geographic Magazine approaches this issue quite effectively, and includes some striking images, such as a two-page spread of a family’s lawn strewn with an array of everyday products made from petroleum-based plastics.  The actual print article is worth a look because the image above does not quite do the dramatic justice of spelling out how oil-dependent design and manufacturing have become.  With this dire discussion however, comes the potential that PLA and other natural (bio-based) raw materials may someday supersede petrol-based plastics, thus aiding the transition to the low-impact industrial economy we must create in order to make the world more sustainable in the long run.  Although this transition may not be altogether smooth, as companies frantically compete for natural and/or recycled material sources, the result will be a stronger and potentially more equitable economy based on less oil dependency, waste, and toxicity, and greater life-sustaining innovation.

Please visit the following links for more information:

New York Times article Oil Prices Raise Cost of Making Range of Goods

Excerpt from National Geographic Magazine’s The End of Cheap Oil

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration

U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration’s Oil Market Basics

U.S. DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves

How Bugs (Yes, Bugs) May Make High Priced Oil a Thing of the Past

Did you ever think that microscopic bugs could present an alternative to drilling for oil, and what that might mean for all sectors of the world economy, especially transportation, design and manufacturing?  To create that alternative, with the help of funding from venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, LS9, an industrial biotech firm in South San Francisco, CA, has been developing a line of patent-pending biofuels through the process of synthetic biology.  The process involves using genetically modified (and non pathogenic) strains of e. coli, which are essentially “fed” various kinds of “feedstock” (wheat straw, wood chips, etc), resulting in a fermentation process that yields a fuel virtually ready for a gas pump.  In that it doesn’t require a fuel-intensive distillation process, it is much more efficient than the process used to produce ethanol.  LS9 believes that they are about one month away from being able to use the fuel as traditional gasoline would be, such as in a car’s gasoline tank, or to power a manufacturing plant, and they plan to have a demonstration-scale plant open by 2010 and a commercial-scale plant open by 2011, which may incorporate Brazilian sugar cane for feedstock.

There is no doubt that the efforts of LS9 and other firms like it, represent a positive step in ending our dependence on traditionally sourced foreign (and domestic, think ANWR) oil, especially as oil prices remain so high.   However, like corn-based biomaterials, bio fuels also have their challenges, such as the emissions they create when burned, and that the scale of production required to meet even domestic fuel demand is so great - some say a plant the size of the City of Chicago!  But perhaps considering the way Silicon Valley works, and how many firms have become strongly devoted to alt fuel and clean tech initiatives, it may not be too long before an entrepreneur develops some sort of  emissions-free biofuel that can be produced at facilities tethered to municipal waste treatment plants.  Although that may be just a concept today, when achieved, it would help create a truly “sustainable” alternative to traditional petroleum, and thus decrease the overall environmental impact of the global economy.

Some great resources for further information:

LS9’s Renewable Petroleum™ Technology

Khosla Ventures

Clean Edge 

Even Video Games are Targeting Environmental Issues

“In a desperate, near future setting where controlling the planet’s depleting fossil resources determines the ultimate fate of civilization. A global war for oil is being waged between two superpowers, the Western Coalition (US/EU) and the Red Star Alliance (Russia/China).”

Jane McGonigal was a speaker at South by Southwest this year. She’s a game designer and future forecaster who “takes play seriously.” Her day to day work is as senior researcher at the Institute for the Future (what a great name). Jane spends a majority of her time writing and speaking about the power of digital games, virtual environments and other immersive experiences. She believes that they can change our current reality and also shape our future. Her specialty is focusing on designing collaborative games that mesh the real world with virtual environments. Originally titled “World Without Oil”, Frontlines: Fuel of War is a collaborative online game simulating global oil shortage. It’s the first mainstream video game to capitalize on the worst case scenario of a global oil shortage. According to Craig Anderson, the game “could in fact lead to changes in attitudes, beliefs, and ultimately, changes in behavior.” Craig is a well established professor who teaches psychology at Iowa State University. He is a leading expert in the study of how video games effect people.