A Road Less Travelled?

As the summer driving season winds down come this Labor Day, there is no time like the present to reflect how the trend towards ever higher gas prices is taking a major toll on American driving habits.  If oil prices continue to skyrocket (Crude is at $116/barrel as of this writing, down from a high of over $147 on July 11, 2008), it may lead over the next few years, to what economist Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Markets terms “the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history.”  How might this possibility affect the environment and the design of the cars of the future?  For some, it might lead to taking public transportation more often or purchasing a fuel efficient car, as fuel expenses reach 20% of income, but there is real concern that unlike many Europeans who have adjusted over time to high energy costs thanks to forward-thinking leadership, it will be very challenging for Americans to do the same before a widespread clean technology infrastructure is in place. However, with the help of big thinkers like Amory Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, options such as the Hypercar, made with an ultra-light and highly rigid structure, and capable of three to five times greater fuel efficiency than the cars of today, we will work our way out of this challenge.  Even though the Hypercar may be at least a few years off due to cost of carbon fiber manufacturing, leaders like Shai Agassi, founder of Better Place, may soon fill the void of fuel efficiency with his bold plan to provide affordable electric vehicles around the world, in the near future.

Hypercar

Watch interview with Amory Lovins discussing Hypercar technology on bigpicture.tv

Better Place

As Goes Oil, So Goes Plastic

With daily headlines proclaiming the dramatic rise in oil prices and the inevitability of “Peak Oil”, consumers are being forced to dramatically alter their driving (and flying) habits, and if a recessionary economy takes hold, manufacturers may have to scale back oil-dependent production lines.  Although such trends may actually lead to a decrease in oil prices down the road, there is no consensus among economists and oil industry experts that that would happen.  In the meantime, apart from a more costly commute, the effects of oil’s rise are visible in gradually rising prices for goods, as manufacturers seek alternatives to petroleum-based sources for plastic, and alternative fuels for their operations.  For example, Goodyear has made a move to natural rubber as an alternative to oil-based synthetics for their tires, but because of the rise in commodities such as natural rubber, have had to raise prices by 15%.  This is just one example of many, which spell out the financial pressures that many manufacturers are facing, and how an across-the board rise in product prices (inflation) may be in the offing.

(Courtesy National Geographic Magazine)

An article in the April 2006 issue of National Geographic Magazine approaches this issue quite effectively, and includes some striking images, such as a two-page spread of a family’s lawn strewn with an array of everyday products made from petroleum-based plastics.  The actual print article is worth a look because the image above does not quite do the dramatic justice of spelling out how oil-dependent design and manufacturing have become.  With this dire discussion however, comes the potential that PLA and other natural (bio-based) raw materials may someday supersede petrol-based plastics, thus aiding the transition to the low-impact industrial economy we must create in order to make the world more sustainable in the long run.  Although this transition may not be altogether smooth, as companies frantically compete for natural and/or recycled material sources, the result will be a stronger and potentially more equitable economy based on less oil dependency, waste, and toxicity, and greater life-sustaining innovation.

Please visit the following links for more information:

New York Times article Oil Prices Raise Cost of Making Range of Goods

Excerpt from National Geographic Magazine’s The End of Cheap Oil

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration

U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration’s Oil Market Basics

U.S. DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves